Friday, May 05, 2017

Tips and Picks: Round 7 Play-off Jupiler Pro League

4 more rounds to play before the season in Belgium ends.
At the moment the Poisson model is running a little bit behind. Mainly caused by the 1X2 bets. Don't know what the problem is there. I decided to continue to play them, to have a complete historical record for next years play-offs.

I would be nice to score another Acca. I did hope on 3 acca's, so one to go.
As always all my bets are placed at:

My 1X2 tips and bets for this round:


RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP7CharleroiClub Brugge1X21222G21
SP7MechelenWaasland-Beveren1X211,510-1
SP7KortrijkRoeselare1X211,7610-1
SP7LokerenMouscron1X211,8510-1
SP7St TruidenStandard1X213,5X0-1
SP7OostendeGent1X213,45X0-1
SP7AnderlechtWaregem1X211,2810-1
SP7GenkEupen1X211,2810-1

The Over/Under market stand on a small profit for the moment, let's continue this momentum.

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP7MechelenWaasland-BeverenO/U12,08U0-1
SP7KortrijkRoeselareO/U11,48O0-1
SP7LierseUnionO/U11,94O0-1
SP7LokerenMouscronO/U12,25U0-1
SP7St TruidenStandardO/U11,83O0-1
SP7AnderlechtWaregemO/U12,75U0-1
SP7GenkEupenO/U11,38O0-1

The BTTS market is running on the other hand a little bit behind. These bets should bring green figures to this market:

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP7CharleroiClub BruggeBTTS12,02N0-1
SP7MechelenWaasland-BeverenBTTS11,88N0-1
SP7LierseUnionBTTS12,02N0-1
SP7LokerenMouscronBTTS12,25N0-1
SP7OostendeGentBTTS12,05N0-1
SP7GenkEupenBTTS12,12N0-1

My bets market at the moment, the correct score bets. At the moment delivering a profit of 4 units, good for a ROI of 8,7%.

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP7CharleroiClub BruggeCS190-00-1
SP7MechelenWaasland-BeverenCS17,51-00-1
SP7KortrijkRoeselareCS18,51-10-1
SP7LokerenMouscronCS19,51-00-1
SP7St TruidenStandardCS171-10-1
SP7OostendeGentCS1101-00-1
SP7AnderlechtWaregemCS182-00-1
SP7GenkEupenCS192-00-1
SP7LierseUnionCS111,50-10-1

Last but not least my Acca's. After a good start, this betting market is also getting behind. One more correct will probably make it a winning market for the complete play-offs.

My 1X2 acca looks like this:

Home AwayPredictionOdds
4 1X2GenkEupen11,28
CharleroiClub Brugge22
KortrijkRoeselare11,74
MechelenWaasland11,5
Total6,68

My BTTS Acca is the following:
Home AwayPredictionOdds
4 BTTSSt TruidenStandardJ1,64
MechelenWaaslandN1,88
LokerenMouscronN2,25
GenkEupenN2,12
Total14,71

The O/U acca:
Home AwayPredictionOdds
4 O/ULierseUnionO1,94
KortrijkRoeselareO1,48
CharleroiClub BruggeU1,84
St TruidenStandardO1,83
Total9,67

Last but not least the Correct score Yankee, with a potential profit of 715 units :).
Home AwayPredictionOdds
CSGenkEupen2-09
St TruidenStandard1-17
AnderlechtWaregem2-08
CharleroiClub Brugge0-09
Total716,6

The test run of the Poisson model for the Dutch Eredivisie is almost done. If ready in time I will post the predictions according to the new model. I probably will not bet on it.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Friday, April 28, 2017

Betting tips round 6: Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Like posted in the previous post there are 5 more round, to end the season in green figures.
For the moment the 4 O/U acca is assured of a profit.

For this weekend the following bets should deliver a profit for me.
In total 36 bets are placed, with a total ante of 36,35 units. Would be really nice in the Yankee correct score would come in, cause the potential pay-out is 3919 units.

So let's start with the 1X2 bets for this weekend:
8 bets, hoping on a lot of upsets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6GenkKortrijk1X211,3511G1,350,35
SP6LokerenEupen1X213,0521F0-1
SP6WaaslandSt Truiden1X212,4512F0-1
SP6LierseMechelen1X2131xF0-1
SP6GentAnderlecht1X212,72XF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroi1X214,221F0-1
SP6MouscronRoeselare1X214,321F0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregem1X211,4511G1,450,45

In the Over/Under 2.5 market, 7 bets. Almost all over 2.5 bets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionO/U11,57OOG1,570,57
SP6LokerenEupenO/U11,74OOG1,740,74
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenO/U12,02OUF0-1
SP6GentAnderlechtO/U11,85OUF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiO/U11,91UUG1,910,91
SP6MouscronRoeselareO/U11,69OUF0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemO/U11,7OOG1,70,7

In the BTTS market, we expect a lot of clean sheets:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionBTTS12,25NJF0-1
SP6GenkKortrijkBTTS12,04NNG2,041,04
SP6LokerenEupenBTTS12,25NJF0-1
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenBTTS12,02NNG2,021,02
SP6LierseMechelenBTTS11,7JNF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiBTTS12NNG21
SP6MouscronRoeselareBTTS11,65JNF0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemBTTS11,85JJG1,850,85

Correct score bets:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionCS1280-23-1F0-1
SP6GenkKortrijkCS18,52-03-0F0-1
SP6LokerenEupenCS1101-04-1F0-1
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenCS18,51-00-1F0-1
SP6LierseMechelenCS171-10-0F0-1
SP6GentAnderlechtCS171-10-0F0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiCS181-01-0G87
SP6MouscronRoeselareCS1141-21-0F0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemCS18,52-12-1G8,57,5

Finally the Acca's:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP64 1X219,85J0-1
SP64 BTS111,44J0-1
SP64 O/U1,259,38J0-1,25
SP6Yankee CS1,1J0-1,1

We are going for a third profitable round in a row!

Good luck,
Dremeber

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Half way the Jupiler Pro League: Poisson evaluation

5 rounds far. What can I say. 3 winning weeks, 2 loosing weeks.
To bad for me the loosing round were worse than the winning rounds were good.
Week 1: + 7,06 units
Week 2: - 9,6 units
Week 3: -16 units
Week 4: + 6,85 units
Week 5: +0,85 units

# ante# Pay-outP/LROI#GF
OveralCS3733,5-3,5-9,46%3743310,81%
1X23929,98-9,02-23,13%39132633,33%
BTS3229,5-2,5-7,81%32161650,00%
O/U2323,680,682,96%23121152,17%
Yankee CS4,40-4,4-100,00%4040,00%
4 BTS59,64,692,00%51420,00%
4 1X250-5-100,00%5050,00%
4 O/U513,268,26165,20%51420,00%
150,4139,52-10,88-7,23%1504710331,33%


I did place 150 bets, good for an ante of 150,4. 47 bets were correct (31%), this number looks low but don't forget that there are also 37 correct score bets. If we wipe out the correct score bets, the hit rate increases to38%. Still to low.
The main cause is that on the 1X2 market the model only predicted 13 correct out of 39.

It is good to see that the Over/Under market is within the green figures and that the BTTS market (+3,1 units in week 5) is also getting close.

Overall I'm down for 10,88 unit, but I do still believe that a can end up in green figures.
5 more rounds to go.

Cheers,
Dremeber



Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Tips round 5: Jupiler Pro League

Due to time constraints a plain table with all my 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS and Correct score bets for round 5 of the Jupiler Pro League.
 
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP5RoeselareKortrijk1X212,722G2,71,7-10,03
SP5StandardWaasland-Beveren1X211,5812F0-1-11,03
SP5WaregemGent1X213,35X2F0-1-12,03
SP5EupenGenk1X211,952XF0-1-13,03
SP5Club BruggeOostende1X211,5211G1,520,52-12,51
SP5MechelenSt Truiden1X211,9511G1,950,95-11,56
SP5MouscronLokeren1X213,55XXG3,552,55-9,01
SP5AnderlechtCharleroi1X211,4612F0-1-10,01
SP5RoeselareKortrijkBTS11,65JJG1,650,65-9,36
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenBTS12,05NNG2,051,05-8,31
SP5UnionLierseBTS12,08NJF0-1-9,31
SP5WaregemGentBTS11,9NNG1,90,9-8,41
SP5EupenGenkBTS11,54JJG1,540,54-7,87
SP5Club BruggeOostendeBTS11,98NJF0-1-8,87
SP5MechelenSt TruidenBTS12,08NNG2,081,08-7,79
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiBTS11,88NNG1,880,88-6,91
SP5RoeselareKortrijkO/U11,84OOG1,840,84-6,07
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenO/U12,14UUG2,141,14-4,93
SP5WaregemGentO/U12,18OUF0-1-5,93
SP5Club BruggeOostendeO/U11,71UOF0-1-6,93
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiO/U12,15UUG2,151,15-5,78
SP5RoeselareKortrijkCS1101-22-3F0-1-6,78
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenCS18,52-00-2F0-1-7,78
SP5UnionLierseCS111,52-01-3F0-1-8,78
SP5WaregemGentCS191-00-2F0-1-9,78
SP5EupenGenkCS18,51-21-1F0-1-10,78
SP5Club BruggeOostendeCS18,52-03-1F0-1-11,78
SP5MechelenSt TruidenCS181-01-0G87-4,78
SP5MouscronLokerenCS171-12-2F0-1-5,78
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiCS17,51-00-1F0-1-6,78
SP54 1X219,13JNF0-1-7,78
SP54 BTS112,42JNF0-1-8,78
SP54 O/U113,63JNF0-1-9,78
SP5Yankee CS1,1JNF0-1,1-10,88

Monday, April 24, 2017

A profit is a profit

It was a small profit but a profit it was. 6,85 units in total (22,03% ROI)
3 markets colored green.

The Correct score market, delivered 1 correct score prediction, god enough for a profit of 1,5 units.
The over/under market also brought in a small profit, namely 0,84 units.
Finally 1 acca came in, the 4 O/U acca, good for a profit of 12,26 units.

Combine this with relatively small losses and the 1X2 market (-2,45 units), the BTTS market (-2,2 units) and the other acca markets (-3,1 units) and overal we made a profit.

Still disappointed about the 1X2 market. Only 3 out of 8 correct.

As a resume:
week 1: 7,06 units profit
week 2: -9,6 units loss
week 3: -16 units loss
week 4: 6,85 units profit

This week there is a midweek round in the Jupiler Pro League, I will try to post my picks later tonight or tomorrow.

Cheers,
Dremeber