Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Closure, Hibernation and a fresh start

This blog goes way back.The first post was made somewhere in de middle of Juni in 2006.
The blog also went many times into hibernation.
I switched from posting tips to only articles, going back to tipping, posting my stats and several more nonsens.

Like I said many time before, I'm being fed up with being a loosing sports better. So drastic measure have to be taken. Therefor I decided to create a new blog, in which I will tell my story from transforming into a long term winning sports better.
I could write this story on this blog but it doesn't feel appropriate. All my losses are made during the lifetime of this blog!

The new blog will is Reclaiming my losses.

Hope to see you on my new blog!


Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Happy New Year

The good thing about a new year is that you can take a fresh start! We all know that this is also possible in the middle of the year, but only very few people do this.

My plan for this year is simple. I do want to make a profit, doesn’t matter how much, as long as it is a profit it is okay for me.
So this year it is serious. While fun stands above profit, profit will be my goal.

This year I will also try to learn from my mistakes in the past, I will try to expand my betting knowledge, I will stick to sports I know, understand and have knowledge about.

As you can see on the top of my blog, I did create pages. These pages represents the sports and betting types I will focus on.
Each sport and betting type will have it’s own bankroll and status updates.
In short my betting plans for 2016 consists of:
-          Both team to score: No single bets here. I will start with combos of 3 matches and an ante of €1. Depending on the results the ante of the number of matches on the ticket will increase. Starting bankroll is €15.
-          Over 2.5 bets: Similar to the BTTS. Also the bankroll will start at €15.
-          Anytime goalscorer: again similar with BTTS and O 2.5. And again a starting bankroll of €15.
-          Dremebers 1K challenge: The rules of this challenge can be read in the previous post. The idea is to turn a starting bet of €2 into €1k. In contrast to many of these challenges this includes a banking method. There is no restrictions on the type of sport, but will be mainly Football, Tennis and Basketball. Starting bankroll is €20.
-          Supertoto: Offered by Unibet it is a toto pool, where you are not playing against the bookie but against other players. Depending on the number of matches correct you can get a share of the price pool. I will allow myself 10 attempts of max €3.2, resulting in a starting bankroll of €32.
-          Golf Bets: Here I will place my bets on the European and PGA tour. Probably I will bet on the first round leader (if my bookies are offering this) of each tournament and 3 each way bets. Still doubting how I will fill this in. But I will keep you posted. The starting bankroll is €50. Evenly divided among the European and PGA tour.

So in total my starting bankroll is €147. I will not deposit this in one deposit. I will start with half of it so €75.
If a bankroll dries out, that part of my betting will probably be cancelled. This means that I’m obviously loosing money there, so there is no point in continuing trying to recover my losses.

Also still doubting how many bookies I will use. For the moment I will keep it at 1.

To prove to myself that it is serious this time, I did purchase a book. I will start with reading “The smart money”.

Have a good year,

Friday, December 04, 2015

Dremeber's 1K challenge

I have seen many sports betting challenges on the Internet in the trend of turning amount x into 1 or 2k with a 1 bet a time or day!
My 1K challenge is based on this principle only with a banking rule addition.
Most of these challenges start with one bet and they keep on betting with the profit and original stake from the previous bet, until they ran into a loosing bet. After which they start all over again. So each bet they are risking it all. I do understand that this is maybe the fastest road to the ultimate goal, but I'm not willing to go all-in at every bet.

This is why I did introduce some kind of banking hopefully preventing me from going bankrupt.
2 kinds of banking principles could be used for this challenge.
One where you do bank some money after a number of winning bets and the other were you do bank a % of the profit after each winning bet. I do prefer the other.
Why? If you are having a bad streak your bankroll dry’s up incredibly fast and maybe you will never reach your banking point.
With banking some of the profit, each winning bet will give you some money back as return on investment; it can be compared with the pay-out of dividends on the stock exchanges.
While this does not guarantee that your initial investment will be recovered, it will slowly rebuild/increase your bankroll.

During my trial of the challenge I did manage to place 15 winning bets in a row, without banking I would have lost it all, with the banking principle I did loose my initial stake of €2 but I was capable of increasing my bankroll with 50%.

Due to the nature of the betting scheme I do place more bets that I normally do, but this also has a positive thing behind it. Unibet does show their appreciation once in a while by giving me a free bet of around €3.
So my idea is to bank a certain % of the profit made on the bet, this % increases when the ante of bet increases. I did set up following banking table. There is no mathematics behind the %s but is just something I came up with.

 Ante                  Banking
1-10                    20%
10-20                  25%
20-30                  30%
30-50                  35%
50-75                  40%
75-100                45%
> 100                  50 %

So suppose my first bet is a winning one with an ante of €2 and 1.2 odds. This would mean that the ante of my next bet is €2.32
The profit was €0.40, and 20% of this is €0,08,
As you can see in the beginning the banking is minimal.
When a bet is for instance €15 and the odds are 1,3 then I would be able to bank €1,13.

My challenge has only 4 strict rules.
Rule 1: Always at max 1 running bet.
Rule 2: After a loosing bet, the new ante for the next bet will be the maximum of €2 of 10% of the current bankroll.
Rule 3: Banking rules should be followed strictly. The banking rules will be explained below.
Rule 4: When the current betting streak reaches 1K, I will withdraw €500.

Starting bankroll is €33,05.
The preferred bookmaker is Unibet.

Based on my starting bankroll and my banking principle I do have at least 13 attempts to reach the 1K mark.
Let's see if I can do the impossible!


Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Here we go again!

The football season started again and so my urge to take another gamble on the sports markets.

I did credit my Unibet account with €30 at the end of July. At the moment my account statement says €90. But there is more. I did already cash twice. The first withdrawal was €75 and the second was €96. I know that these are strange numbers but I don’t like it having much more than €100 on my Unibet account. If this is the situation I tend to take more risks, both in staking and in odds.

Most of my profit does come from the Superscore game on Unibet. I did have 2 winning tickets, good for a pay-out of around 260€.
This already indicates that I have a very big leak somewhere. Without looking at my betting log, I already know that this probably are my bets on the Supertoto. If I’m not mistaken, I did bet around €60 on various tickets, with only 1 small winning. Still I do have faith in the Supertoto.

In contrast to other years I don’t have a fixed betting plan for each week, sport or competition. I must admit that I do like it this way. On the other side I will have a review on my betting log to find leaks. Leaks can only be solved in 2 possible ways, stay away from the particular market or do much more investigation before placing a bet.
I also play less combinations.

In contrast to having no specific betting plan, I did set up something for the Jupiler Pro League in Belgium. Not alone I do have some kind of betting plan, I also will publish these on the latest 1 day before the first match kicks off (maybe not all odds will be filled in, due to the fact that Unibet is late in the goal scorer market).

The plan is as followed. Each matchday I will place 4 types of bets.
Bet 1: JPL8 1X2 -> This is a betting slip on all games of the round. On each game I will predict home win, draw, away win, home win / draw or away win/draw. The stake on this betting slip will always be €1.
Bet 2: JPL5 R -> This is a betting slip, with 5 games of the round on it. In stead of 1X2 bets, the type of bets will be in the order of home team scores (HTS), away team scores (ATS), both team scores (BTS), clean sheet home (CSH), clean sheet away (CSA), over/under 2,5 goals (O 2,5 or U2,5), home team wins at least one half (HWH), away team wins at least one half (AWH). Also each time a €1 stake.
Bet 3: JPL2 SP -> Only 2 bets on this type of ticket. I will try to predict 2 players which will score during the matchday. Also here a €1 bet.
Bet 4: JPL2 CS -> This one is more a fantasy bet, than a real one. The chances that I will have a winning tickets during the 25 remaining round are very slim. That’s why the stake will be only €0,5 per betting slip. I will try to predict 2 correct score from the matchday.

The total investment of this will be €87,5 for the season.
Based on the average winning odds of last season I will need the following figures to make a profit per betting type:
JPL8 1X2 -> 3 winning tickets
JPL5 R -> 4 winning tickets
JPL2 SP -> 4 winning tickets
JPL2 CS -> 1 winning ticket (if this comes true, that a profit is guaranteed over the complete scheme)

I’ll keep you posted. Thursday evening I will post my first bets for the Jupiler Pro League.